European combined transport declines again

European combined transport volumes fell by 1.23 per cent in the third quarter of 2026 compared with the same period last year, according to figures from industry association UIRR. After a brief stabilisation in the spring, the sector returned to negative territory, and the association's members expect an unfavourable business environment over the next 12 months.

In its latest quarterly bulletin, UIRR says economic conditions deteriorated further between July and September. Some members still see positive prospects, but the association believes the overall European situation leaves little room for short-term optimism.

The main pressures include reduced capacity on German rail corridors, extremely low water levels on the Rhine, inadequate diversionary routes and rising track access charges. Weak economic growth and high inflation are making business conditions even more difficult.

Combined transport after a brief recovery

The third-quarter result ended the modest recovery seen in the preceding period. The year began with a 4.92 per cent decline in the number of consignments in the first quarter, which UIRR linked to inadequate diversionary routes for intermodal trains during full line closures in Germany and other countries.

At the same time, weak economic activity freed up capacity among road hauliers. This made it easier for shippers to switch back from intermodal to road transport.

The second quarter saw growth of just 0.29 per cent. In August, UIRR described that result as relatively strong given the difficulties facing the sector.

Growth was driven primarily by France, where the authorities continue to support combined transport and fund intermodal equipment, as well as Poland and the Baltic states. Germany and Italy, two major intermodal markets, held back the overall result.

Two of the first three quarters of 2026 thus ended below last year's levels. Business expectations have also weakened: after slightly negative assessments in the first and second quarters, UIRR members now give a negative assessment for the period to 30 September 2027.

German corridors and charges remain the main problem

According to UIRR, Deutsche Bahn has acknowledged that the implementation of its Generalsanierung comprehensive corridor renewal programme was too ambitious or insufficiently developed. The association cites the Hanover–Berlin corridor, where work began on 2 October, as an example.

The traffic diversion plan had to be revised because the alternative line originally envisaged will not be electrified before December 2027. UIRR continues to seek compensation for inadequate diversionary routes.

Alongside infrastructure constraints, the sector also faces higher costs. Track access charges in Germany are expected to rise by approximately 12 per cent in 2027. DB InfraGO's preliminary application for 2028 proposes an increase of 85 per cent for very heavy trains and 6.6 per cent for other trains.

Low water levels on the Rhine have further disrupted terminal operations and barge navigation. Combined transport's problems are therefore not confined to the rail network.

Investment continues, but no rapid turnaround is expected

UIRR also criticises the European Commission, which it believes does not sufficiently recognise the urgency of restoring rail freight transport. The association advocates a cross-border freight strategy in which intermodal transport would play a more prominent role.

Despite weaker results, investment continues. UIRR highlights ongoing investment in Spain and continued positive developments in France. Also linked to the development of French intermodal capacity is the new intermodal terminal in Dunkirk.

In Germany, chemicals group BASF has begun expanding the KTL terminal in Ludwigshafen, one of the country's largest multimodal hubs. The project is scheduled for completion in 2028.

For now, however, such projects do not change the sector's short-term expectations. According to the assessment in UIRR's bulletin, the industry does not expect new investment to offset the effects of existing infrastructure problems in the near term.

Source: railfreight.com